Crash Radar levels, confirmation prices and re-alerts
Watch, warning and critical, the confirm / full confirmation / void prices, when the radar alerts again, how it restrains longs, and how to judge it by its own record.
What the radar does
The Crash Radar estimates, for every coin you watch, the risk of a sharp drop over the next 15 minutes, hour, four hours and day. It combines known warning signs (crowded positioning, stretched prices, selling pressure, thinning bids, weakness in Bitcoin and more) with models trained on the coin's own past crashes, plus a fast cascade detector that catches a liquidation-driven crash in its first seconds. Bitcoin and Ether are always watched, because a market-wide drop hits every coin.
Where to see it: the small gauge on every widget and pair page, and the Crash Radar page in the sidebar, with one card per coin (risk per horizon, cascade and rule parts, the reasons, the most similar past crashes and Evaluate now to recompute at once). A card marked rules only has too few past crashes for a trained model; the warning-sign score still works. A strip at the top shows the next macro event.
Levels
| Level | What you see |
|---|---|
| watch | Yellow marker on the gauge and an entry in the alert drawer; no sound. |
| warning | Amber flashing border, warning sound, a popup with the reasons, the confirmation prices and your positions on the coin. |
| critical | Fast red flashing, a full-screen red alert with a repeating siren until you acknowledge it, listing your open positions with Close longs on … and Close all buttons. A live cascade is critical on its own. |
The level thresholds are set by the operator. Market-wide alerts (BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT) are marked market-wide and reach everyone.
Confirmation prices
Every warning carries three prices, so you can decide instead of guess:
| Price | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Confirm below | A close below it means the warning is genuine. |
| Full confirmation | The drop is under way; no long should remain. |
| Void above | A move above it cancels the warning. |
They appear in the popup, in the alert drawer and as the first reason on the Crash Radar card. They are built from the coin's recent swings and volatility.
When it alerts again
An alert fires whenever the level goes up. At the same level it repeats only when something material changed: a clear jump in risk, price reaching the confirm level, the confirm level moving, or a cascade starting. Critical repeats regularly while it lasts. When risk falls back you get an informational "eased" notice (not more than every so often).
How it restrains longs
- watch: new long set-ups are toned down and new long pattern signals are held back.
- warning or critical: the Pattern Engine view shows NO LONGS (or CLOSE LONGS if a long signal is live), trading accounts refuse new longs on the coin, and positions you track get a warning.
- critical with Auto-close longs on crash critical on (Trading page > Global risk settings): open longs on your trading accounts on that coin, or on every coin for a market-wide alert, are closed at market.
Judge it by its record
Each alert is checked a day later: did a real drop follow, how deep, how soon? The results are in Crash alert history, with Hit rate per level as a summary, and the Model report shows the quality of the trained models. False alarms and misses happen; use these numbers to decide how much weight a warning deserves.
Tip: a warning with price far above the confirm level is a reason to tighten stops, not to sell. A warning with price at the confirm level is the moment to act.
The radar reports probabilities, not certainties. Read the risk notice.